

“an analyst says” has to be the “random twitter user x says” of financial reporting. I bet you find an analyst confirming any random claim, if you just look long enough. And he even goes as far as making the claim zero chance, rather than “unlikely”. But I guess that wouldn’t have made for a good quote.
My counter argument to any such claims: Netflix and their presumably competent and informed army of lawyers and financial advisors felt comfortable including a $5.8b breakup fee as part of the deal.
Somehow I don’t think rich people are in the business of betting such amounts on zero chance deals.






Imo it wasn’t a single mistake, but many compounding ones:
As you said they should have let it sit a bit longer and imo also slowly build back up with some smaller scale movies.
They added series in the mix. Imo this is one of the biggest factors. They used shows like Wanda vision to help launch their streaming service and Loki to introduce the next major plot point. Thats a big issue as not everyone will want to commit to watch a full series, but those who don’t will feel like missing something when watching the movie (no matter if this is true or not).
Just straight up subpar movies quality wise. Unrelated to other problems they just had a bunch of weak films.
They got unlucky with casting Jonathan Majors as the cornerstone of their next phase and him subsequently being convicted of assualt and harassment.