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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: February 15th, 2025

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  • It is a fools errand and I do not understand why the smart people at Valve do not understand this. First…it relies on the developer to add the tag. Second the developer may not even know an asset they bought used AI in its creation. Most AI researchers agree that it will become near impossible to determine if an asset was generated with AI, and even using AI to detect will just mean when it does detect, it now knows how to create one that cannot be detected and we end up in a cat and mouse race that humans have no ability to play in.

    We already have tools to rank titles and if it is AI slop, a low effort copycat game, the ratings will reflect this regardless of the tech that may or may not have been used.

    I would hazard to guess that are countless titles that used some AI in its development, perhaps unbeknownst to the developer. Plus, what if a developer made everything from scratch themselves but used AI on one texture to upscale it…does this get an AI label even though it amounts to something like 0.00001% do the title? AI labels are a fools errand and we all need to just rely on the rating system and judge titles on their merits not the tools that made them as like I said, it will become into know AI was used.






  • I see zero evidence that logic has a path to being solved or even just improved from the train wreck logic LLMs currently have as scaling up did not have the impact the investments anticipated. Yes, most other AI metrics really did improve with scale, but not logic as is obvious to anyone using AI for heavy mental lifting like codin.  I call this the Cognitive Gap and despite the effort, it is clear no AI company has any advantage here.  Certainly not OpenAI based on their behaviour alone nor anyone else as the first to crack it, will have a massive advantage and will likely see the birth of AGI and the elusive self improvement takeoff.  Clearly no one is there today.

    John Carmack said a few years ago on the Lex Fridman YouTube video titled “The code for AGI will be simple”

    “It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single individual potentially in the history of the world … I am not a madman in saying that the code for artificial General intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one individual could write, unlike writing a new web browser or operating system.”

    This deeply resonated with me as it is likely true.  In fact I am sure many in IT can relate as anyone working on large IT systems likely have a story that goes like this.  Performance of a new Enterprise system that was developed in-house will require millions of dollars of compute to meet the SLA performance metrics which is well above the original budget.  As hardware was being begrudgingly acquired a smart developer (usually 1 person) realized there was a better way to code a key component and it gained 100x in performance making the need for all that extra millions in hardware null and void.  This did not happen to me once, but many times over my 30 year IT career. You can brute force, but you can also find elegant solutions.

    In my firm opinion there is a strong possibility that John is right and if this comes to pass, it will suddenly mean that AGI is much more efficient than the data centres we have built for it, thus making those investments pointless.

    Of course it may not roll that way and instead we realize it is big code and big data Centers needed and one company or country ends up Dominating all, but my money is on an individual discovering and then making it open source and decentralized and you should hope for this too as the alternative is ugly for all.  Centralization = Corruption and Exploitation.

    Video referenced:  https://youtu.be/xLi83prR5fg








  • I have been using Caputo Gluten Free Pizza dough and wow it is very comparable to a regular Napoli pizza. I have zero affiliation, but as a pizza fan with gluten sensitivity I have tried many many recipes and gluten free flour brands and even my own flour blends, and somehow Caputo is the only one that is hard to tell from a real wheat flour pizza. No idea why either as the ingredients are very similar to other gluten free flours. Cannot recommend more as even your wheat based pizza fans will likely not be able to tell a difference.


  • It is a gamble for sure against innovation and a blind one too. I say this as it is clear right now that scaling up LLMs while very effective at substantially improving many AI metrics, it really did not have much impact on logic. I have been calling this the Cognitive Gap and it is really holding back AI.

    Clearly the big LLM companies do not have a solution to this gap despite efforts like the reasoning models and that likely means we need an entirely different tech to front end LLMs or replace them.

    This begs the question…who has a line of sight on how to scale up logic and the answer as near as I can tell is no one right now. Maybe there is something in a lab somewhere, or even with just a small team or individual, but it is not presently visible. It could come out any day now and make all those Data Center investments worthwhile or may take years before we see the Cognitive Gap close which will really make those same Data Centers completely out of alignment with the value they bring.

    Shorting the AI industry is a roll of the dice, but less so than the blind investments still happening in Data Centres despite no clear path to improve logic and close the Cognitive Gap. In fact shorting seems like the safer bet.

    Going to be interesting as if the Cognative Gap is not closed for years to come, those Data Center investments are never going to pay off as the value will just not be there. The entire USA economy is tied to AI it seems right now so the roll of the dice is perhaps the biggest risk / reward in history.